A Different Way to Predict Runout

For the past few months, I’ve been tracking Geoff Huston’s predictions for when ARIN will run out. The date changes as time passes, but interestingly, it’s changing at a constant rate:

The x-axis is the date I recorded the predicted runout date. The y-axis is the date ARIN was predicted to run out of address space. When X and Y are equal, ARIN will actually run out. Roughly July 2015?

I’ve also been tracking ARIN’s remaining inventory over time. This is different than tracking ARIN’s allocations, because of the way ARIN records allocations, partly because they include transfers.

Again, this would suggest ARIN will run out in July 2015.

This is later than the June 3, 2015 predicted as of today, and different than the March, April, May predictions we’ve been seeing most of this year. It seems like using the second derivative of the trends to see the change in rate of allocation. Still, both charts are pretty linear, unlike the allocation charts.

As always, I’m very interested in others’ interpretations of this data. Follow and Tweet me!

Join the IPv6 conversation on Twitter